Outputs

The NVM produces decision-focused outputs that summarise volcanic impact and risk. In the current ashfall building damage implementation, outputs focus on damage and financial loss to buildings.

Current ashfall building outputs

The current model produces:

• Building damage state probabilities
• Repair cost estimates
• Average annual loss
• Loss exceedance probabilities
• Maps of spatial variation in risk
• Summary graphs and tables
• Comparisons of volcanic-source, regional, and building-component contributions to risk

Damage states

Damage states describe the severity of expected physical consequences for buildings. They provide a practical bridge between hazard intensity and the kinds of impacts that matter for response, recovery, repair, and financial loss estimation.

Financial loss

Financial loss outputs translate expected building damage into repair costs and other loss metrics. These outputs help compare risk across regions, building types, and volcanic sources in a consistent way.

Maps and summaries

Spatial outputs show how risk varies across New Zealand. Summary outputs can be used to compare regions, identify important contributors to national risk, and communicate model results to decision-makers.

Interpretation

Outputs are probabilistic and should not be read as predictions of what will happen in a specific eruption. They are designed for comparing risk, testing assumptions, supporting planning, and identifying where more detailed analysis may be needed.